Elections used to be predictable in comparison to what we have now. Pollster polled, people spoke their mind, and media gave relatively proportionate updates. Now we have two sides of the country virtually at war and two parties hosting internal civil wars – although Democrats effectively force a single agenda on their compliant factions. We have election procedures rigged in some states to institutionalize interference, putting some districts at or below third world integrity. Polling has fallen behind to the point that its usefulness is seriously in question. Where will this lead?
These are just a collection of clues, important ones, and from that we can derive where conservatism and our country will go. Regarding the once and future Trump: I’ve supported both Trump and DeSantis and felt that each would take their turn, but this is no longer possible. Faced with an absolute choice, I thought DeSantis had an edge because of his track record of surrounding himself with reliable people, which conversely, has been Trump’s achilleas heel all along. I’ve largely ignored ‘dark’ Trump because at the end of the day, it had only nominal bearing on his accomplishments. Many people are grossly insincere or deranged in their dread and hate of Trump’s rough manner in as much as Biden demonstrates the same mannerisms and yet those same people happily roll in it like a pig in excrement.
There are/were two primary reasons for sticking with Trump through thick and thin despite his dark side. First, looking back at his record of governance and blocking out all the huge volume of ‘noise’ and hate surrounding his personality, he did a hell of a lot. Few would elevate him to ‘Reagan’ stature, but he deserved to at least be evaluated in the same light. He didn’t propel us into any wars, he brought much economic prosperity and an affordable standard of living. You can’t ask for much more then that. Second, polling data prior to the election (for what that’s worth) put him far ahead of even DeSantis.
On the DeSantis side, he won his first term as Florida governor by a narrow margin and proceeded to make his state overwhelming believers in his values and leadership. He made Florida into a model for the rest of the nation such that it has become a destination for refugees from states that are progressive wastelands. If DeSantis could manage the Presidency of the United States like he managed Florida, even in a time of Covid crisis, he would constitute the ideal Presidency. He’s young, principled, bold, and effective, and he comes with none of the baggage that Trump brings.
On the tail end of the 2022 election, conservatives are at a crossroads. Did Trump sink the election or did his endorsements galvanize the base to bring us this far? Did conservatives suffer a functional loss or a miscalculation of expectations? How flawed were the polls? Trump is being blamed for the fizzle but so is Senate Minority Leader McConnel and they’re polar opposites within the Republican party, so which one was it? Moving forward, will it take Donald Trump to bring out the widest base or will it take DeSantis to bring them all out as well as a critical mass of Independents? Will crossover votes be the deciding factor?
A few days before the 2022 election, Trump referred to DeSantis as “Ron DeSanctimonious”. That was followed by several vague threats against him if he decides to run for President, Trump suggesting that he could and would stain his reputation. All of this was in the couple days before the 2020 election. While I support Trump, this was a WTF moment, for me at least. Maybe you say these things to your wildest base in the spring of 2024 but why would you make such a raw attack on your own side within 72 hours of an election that might make or break the damages being inflicted on us by the worst President in US history? Two years of Trump’s Twitter ban has been especially good for his image. He got things done behind the scenes but awkward negative innuendo, if it was spoken, didn’t filter to the public that I’m aware of. When his place was raided, his support grew that much more. Was there some new iteration of Trump, wiser more measured, or was he suppressed and now coming out more bitter?
In the two years leading up to 2022, Trump’s endorsements did well, even discounting for the races that were clearly manipulated by Democrats. Those would have been uphill in any event. Republicans flipped some key seats and the most reliable pollster projections were within reasonable tolerance up until this election. When the dust settled this past week, most fingers were pointed at Trump. Both Trump and McConnell horded and appropriated money selfishly, highlighting the war we see now even before any votes were cast – it’s just that no one had the focus to do much about it. DeSantis stands out favorably here in contrast to Trump and McConnel.
At this juncture, conservatives are at a frustrating loss, but events will move too quickly for them to fret long. The biggest role in sorting between Trump and DeSantis over the course of 2023 will be the money bags, the big donors; a Darwinian system where big dollars ARE votes. In that respect, the electorate may have the choice made for them by early 2024, a year from now. Trump may go on to smear himself and the core of his base won’t care. In the meantime, Biden will continue to slip further into senility and that won’t matter to his base. Forty percent of the country will vote for the Democrat even if he/she/they/it is in a coma, and I mean that literally as Pennsylvania has proven it as a case sample with Fetterman and some dead candidate.
Whomever wins between Trump and DeSantis will still have to win over most independents in 2024. It will have to be that kind of a margin. As horrendous as things are under Biden now, conditions in this country will have to be even much worse for Independents to be forced to vote for Trump and that isn’t a wish that anyone should make for their own nation because we’re already at a historic low. Maybe that isn’t fair to Trump based on his record, but it is what it is. Otherwise, DeSantis will need to be the nominee. I’ll vote for whomever is the eventual victor. I like them both for different reason already stated, but as it stands now, I go with the future, DeSantis.