In the entire response to Vladimir Putin over his invasion of Ukraine, from the U.S, U.K., and E.U. and similarly aligned countries have said a great many things that are necessary and have provided much assistance. Additionally, there are the sanctions, the crackdown on the oligarchs, the economic and diplomatic isolation that if sustained, would render Russia roughly equivalent to North Korea, an over-armed beggar. But out of all the rhetoric proffered, there are two words that have not been spoken on the world stage: ‘or else’.
I understand the reticence to use those two words. It’s the same thing as the nuanced and vague ‘red line’ terminology, the point at which something so egregious happens that we will spring into action, NATO or no NATO. Once you use it, you’re committed to keep it, something that the United States hasn’t done with any consistency in the heretofore lesser conflicts under Democrat leadership. Europe will not use it if the U.S. does not. The puppet Biden will not use it. The puppet handlers seem to not be inclined to use it. Maybe they have in the back channels, but that context pales in contrast to how Putin will act when openly opposed. The only state leader with the will and determination to stand up to Putin to that level of threat is Zelensky himself.
Putin has made a lot of threats. Tomorrow, on May 9, he may declare victory and begin a draw down, but that is unlikely. He may very well announce a step up and send in far more troops, or he may fire tactical nuclear weapons, the point at which we will likely intervene directly. If the words or else are out there, that lessens the chance that he’ll use nukes. If Biden had said or else prior to the invasion, it may not have happened. It is widely regarded that Biden’s demonstrated weakness goaded Putin into Ukraine. That would not have happened under Trump. While he held office, Trump used the words or else to keep Putin tame.
The use of tactical nuclear weapons will lead to an in-kind response or else the far inferior Russia will blackmail the entirety of Europe into submission. Putin has openly threatened nuclear war on all of NATO. That includes Europe and continental United States. This has not been openly countered with our own or else. While it certainly exists in the doctrine of MAD, mutually assured destruction, Putin needs to be publicly reminded. His threats need to be countered with threats. Or else is a contingency. If you do this, this is what you can expect. The people of Russia need to be reminded that a great many of them will also be instantly incinerated if their failing psychotic leader pushes the red button. Only then will Putin begin the stand down of rhetoric and eventually the military invasion.