This post will need to address several things simultaneously just to get at the promised subject matter, so let’s just dive in and cover the landscape. I’ll attempt this is chronological order.
One: Hardly a few months into the Trump Presidency, a contingent of influential ‘conservatives’ became highly critical of Trump. It would be impossible to cover all the whys, first, because I don’t know all of them and I suspect there are too many to list anyway, but the three biggest things were 1) obsession with and discontent with the handling of the Epstein affair, 2) a broad impatience with progress on everything, the economy, retribution for the deep state, etc, 3) a growing rage over our alignment with Isreal and involvement in their security griefs. I spoke of some of the main players back in December 2025. They’re all still here and a lot of others have joined them. Since then, the antisemite dynamic to this group has deepened into a full-blown identity.
Two: Amidst a great deal of saber rattling, Trump finally initiated the Iran war to rid the Middle East, our allies, and American interests, of the threat from Iran. The historical context, the threat, the military objectives, and the future payoff were all crystal clear to a lot of officials and supporters of the Trump administration. It all isn’t some esoteric special insider knowledge. (some of us have been around a long time to observe the history first hand); but oddly, it was all lost on the discontents, and not just quibbling over a few details; they hadn’t a feigned clue why we should be there. They stood by a curiously one-dimensional outlook that they regarded as a fatal flaw worthy of rebellion. Something like: ‘Traitor Trump got us involved in Isreal’s war. We’re outta here.’ The big Israel push and shove may be worthy of discussion, but it is at best a deeply subjective opinion. The people pushing this are not, or at least were not, stupid people, so why were they all a sudden acting so stupid now?
Three: Trump won the war. He didn’t just win the war, he kicked ass in spectacular fashion on a remarkable time line. Special attention is deserved for Pete Hegseth here. Events are still moving so fast that no one has had to time to comment on the sheer historical significance of what he’s done with our military and this war. I plan to rectify that asap. Israel was full partners in the effort. NATO wimped out, also in ways that will have lasting historical repercussions.
Four: The one primary complication to winning the war was and is the Hormuz Strait which may or may not be open now after the cease fire. This was not unexpected, at all. In fact, this is precisely why 7 Presidents have failed to do what Trump has now done. Frankly, none of these other Presidents could have managed the military force that Trump commanded given the nature of the Iranian defense. Trump promised Armageddon-lite if the straight was not opened. We are now in post-war enforcement mode. Trump’s former friends went bat-shit crazy over all of this, as in, he is a madman needing immediate 25th amendment treatment, aka removal of office, especially for his apocalyptic rhetoric. Once he got the truce and no further bombing (yet) without further destruction, now he was played, owned, surrendered. All of this in absolutes from his frenemies. Note: A certain JD Rucker has commented on the strategic value of this particular chapter. He did a better and more thorough job than I could ever have done so I link it here. He also beat me to the punch. My only complaint with his piece is that he demonstrates too much self-doubt. Trump has worked this way before so there is no need for the doubt. Among all the aforementioned discontents, the cretins, none of them obviously has the wattage to understand Sun Tzu level concepts.
Five: We don’t really need the oil going through the Hormuz Strait and those that do are dragging their feet. We’ll mop up the operation, the Iranians will default on most or all of their agreements and they’ll probably get another round of bombings shoved down their throat until they capitulate – again. Meanwhile, the urgent news cycles are quickly fragmenting and moving onto the next thing. But the discontents are just getting started.
Therefore: What will transpire, particularly in regard to the discontents?
Isreal: Isreal isn’t going anywhere. Our choices on Isreal are binary. Isreal is a sovereign nation with a land mass about 1/1000th of their surrounding Islamic neighbors. They have a right to defend themselves and fight for their own survival and will do so with an urgency that exceeds any motivation of any other nation on the face of the earth, even including the US. Did I mention that they have nukes and are willing to use them if existentially threatened? They don’t really give a damn about the rules of engagement weighted against them. ‘War crimes’ are a perennial faddish notion levied against them by anyone wishing their annihilation. They are a staunch ally, the only full democracy in the middle east. If you/they don’t like Isreal, who you gonna go with? The Saudis? Turkey? Both can be brutal and backstabbers when they want to be and neither is particularly strong. How about Iran? If you don’t like Isreal, you essentially land with Barack Obama. If you hate Jews, you land with Barack Obama. By default, you support the Islamic conquest, the subjugation of the West and the betrayal and destruction of your one ally. PS. Your enemies will not cease to hate us and will stab us in the back. All of this is lost on Tucker Carlson, Alex Jones, Megan Kelly et al. If you don’t want Isreal as a friend than how do you want them?
Antisemitism: Antisemitism is popular right now. It has a life of its own even apart from people’s disposition on Isreal. It has no logical cause not rooted in basic rabid demagoguery. No peoples are perfect and no peoples are innocent of crimes but Jews alone must pay for their sins in a way that no others are subject to. Antisemitism is a spirit of the age that has returned all too soon.
Iran: Iran is defeated but until a new strongman arises from within to subjugate the IRGC, they will need a boot on their head. It may come in a few weeks or maybe in some other generation. They will never be able to rise up with Trump in power, or hopefully, under any heir to his domain, but after that, all bets are off. If that occurs, that will be the true Armageddon that everyone fears now.
Strait of Hormuz: The straight will truly open, probably sooner rather than later. The only question now is how many IRGC want to go meet Allah before it’s open and free and quite possibly, fully administered by the United States.
The Discontents: What is the motivation of such a large contingent of ‘conservatives’ now throwing the knife into Trump’s back? Be assured, it is not ideological purity. Sure, they now act like true blue whack libertarians with their isolationist rhetoric, but don’t expect them to remain true to those ideas. As I pointed out in my prior article, all of them (and it’s a much bigger group now than what I originally cited), all of them hit a pinnacle and got knocked down, some quite badly. They haven’t dealt with that well at all. When you have a lot of money, power and esteem, and lose it, and are struggling to re-find glory, you apparently, will do and say anything necessary to get that drug back in your veins. But on yet a higher magnitude, they see a gap they believe they must fill. They’re betting they can reshape MAGA into a thing that is other than Trump. They now know, painfully, they can never fit into America First, at the level of their former glory, and on the platform that Donald Trump now occupies, and succeed. They’re claiming different turf, and they will fail. No other explanations accounts for such a simultaneous corporate embrace of stupidity.
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