In less than one week, decades of change and realignment have parsed out in the invasion of Ukraine. Consequently, in these scant few days, I must write my own report card as I had made predictions. I was wrong on a key detail but am still right on several points.
Where I was wrong: In just a few days, Europe has reversed itself on a generation of passive engagement and will now shoulder a much greater share of its own defense. It’s looking down the road to the next probable invasion and looking at a profoundly ambiguous United States. Ukraine will stand longer than the week that I predicted. If they’re able to stand fast, it will probably be a leveled scorched earth.
Zelenskyy has prevailed far above and beyond anyone’s expectation. If he survives this, he will have accrued more credibility than any present European leader, but I say this even as key European leaders rise up and also exceed expectations. They are filling a vacuum that used to be occupied by the President of the United States. We’re helping – small ‘h’, that’s all, but we’re also hurting by remarkably still buying Russian fuel – to blunt the present accelerating energy cost inflation – caused by Joe Biden – to appease the climate change far left crowd. It is still credible to say that had this dynamic not existed, Putin may have hesitated in the invasion, but who can know, nevertheless, it is still our shame.
There is no clear path forward from this point as Putin appears ready and still quite willing to start WWIII. As I write, a nuclear power plant in Ukraine is on fire. That might be considered equal to a slow erupting nuclear device. What does seem apparent is that the combined force of the Ukrainian people, Russian dissenters on the ground and in Russia, and the collective force of European powers assisting the Ukrainians, while they may not be able to prevent an apocalypse on the land and peoples of Ukraine, they can certainly rob Putin of any value and valor in his quest. If only they could dispatch with him before it got to that point.
Putin is toast. The only questions is how soon and by what hand. There is war on the oligarchs now, being dispossessed of riches, a round of possible assassinations may have begun with the death of one of Ukraine’s; watch for this to escalate and disrupt his support network.
While we’re protected by an ocean, there is a great deal for which that helps not at all; nuclear, cyber, space. If only we had an engaged, intelligent, decisive leader. I don’t pretend to know the wisest tactical course, but I would wish for someone with a staff that did. What’s worse is that we have no mechanism for rectifying our own neglect. Europe could be a smoldering pit even before the 2022 elections. We’re now dependent on the valor of a small country, the awakened (and alarmed) European leadership, and the slim hope that maybe Russia’s people could do what no others could do in a timely manner.
And I have to say it again: elections have consequences.