Most of us are dependent on news cycles to understand what’s happening in places like Ukraine. At about six weeks into the war there, one that presented us with the prospect of WWIII, that war has mostly disappeared from our newsfeed except from tertiary coverage. Is it that much less important? Given that Ukraine is driving out Russian forces from a large area of combat in central Ukraine and because Putin has yet to use chemical or nuclear weapons, the average Joe looks to more pressing things at home. Since the war has gone a different direction than anyone expected, it should be worthwhile to understand what’s on the road ahead if only because the options are changing significantly.
The major schools of thought are now aligned differently than a few weeks ago: 1) Ukraine is faux winning now and Russia is bluffing a strategic retreat and will still pound them long term until Ukraine makes a significant compromise on territory. 2) Ukraine is winning enough that we can just move on 3) The far far right still believes Russia is good, Ukraine really are Nazis and they’ll eventually facilitate some kind of victory for the globalist, [yes, I know that makes no sense but the whole approach is one huge ball of contradictions, just calling them the way I see them.] The first and second merit some comment together and the third can be ignored. If ‘good guys’ Russia is the victim, they can always just leave.
Why is this still important? While the chance that a nuclear exchange is still real, a slow defeat of Russia mitigates the risk. Russia can lie its way out of a slow ambiguous defeat and save itself the messy consequences of a nuclear exchange (probable escalation and mutually assured destruction – it still works after all). The real consequences are these: 1) who and how will post-war Russian energy be controlled? 2) Will both Russian and Ukrainian agricultural production be unencumbered soon enough to prevent even more major disruption of crops and food, enough to prevent famines, short, medium, and long term? (This in turn affecting the stability of other non-related states). 3) Who will control post-Putin Russia? 4. China certainly remains in question relative to the war but has enough unique problems of its own such that the Ukraine war outcome will place a brief pause on their expansion. 5. Where does the US and the EU now stand in the world? These questions are of course inter-related.
Piecing together clues that have been revealed in the hundreds of news stories the past couple weeks, I believe the above questions should be funneled through one major factor that appears to be occurring. Putin has lost his grip on Russia, no one is or will be appointed to succeed him and the turn of power, whenever it does occur, will be messy. Putin is reported to be staying in a bunker, very likely due to fear of assassination. He is believed to be at least psychologically unstable, but also to have one or more serious health conditions. He has been lied to by his civil and military leaders due their fears of retribution. Putin has created the perfect prison for himself wherein he can no longer trust anyone on any level. This could go on for a long time to everyone’s detriment. Meanwhile, I have reason to believe that Ukraine forces are indeed in a position to leverage their current small advantages to the point that it’s realistic to envision an absolute defeat of the Russian army. If this were to occur, it would be comparable to Waterloo, the 19th century battle that put an end to the reign of Napoleon Bonaparte. If this occurs, the balance of power in the world will be very different. The West and all of Russia’s neighbors will never let them fully rebuild a conventional war machine like what they currently use.
There are really two scenarios that could playout toward the end that I see here. The Ukraine war ends in a diplomatic and military stalemate that drags on. Meanwhile, the clock slowly runs out for Putin; psychologically, health, trust by his inner circle and the oligarchs. The sanctions gradually erode all widespread trust remaining in the Russian populace. Putin goes away, eventually. While this scenario is not a resounding loss, it’s certainly not a win.
The second scenario resolves in a similar way but accelerated. The Russian army has an unambiguous defeat in Ukraine; consequently, enough of Putin’s inner circle defect from him, some group either pulls off a forced succession or they simply kill him. Poison would be poetic in this instance.
I do understand that this discussion is basically a ‘parlor game’ but it isn’t just that because no matter what happens, even in the United States, the eventual shock waves will greatly affect even us and our domestic priorities in unpredictable ways. As American’s we’ve grown indifferent to the fact that other nations upheavals results in thousands or even millions of deaths, including children. ‘Tsk Tsk’, way too many say. We should have more fear and respect as we’re not as immune as many would like to think. All empires die, sooner or later.