Now is as good of a time to start parsing out the fight for the Republican and maybe conservative Presidential nominee for the 2024 election. There are no real predictions here, rather, this is more like thinking out loud to organize thoughts, develop signs to look for and these will eventually feed into trends to look for, predictions to make and positions to fight for. The following is largely in note form.
- Trump has declared his candidacy, DeSantis is a presumed candidate, no others are viable except as an exercise in jockeying for the VP or cabinet roles. Pence goes through the motions of a pre-candidacy, positioning himself as a senior statesman type, but at the end, like his ending as VP, does not have the fortitude to fight for anyone, including himself. I suspect he secretly hopes to be swept up on the wings of a Draft Pence movement that will never happen.
- Previously, I’ve advocated for both Trump and DeSantis with an edge for DeSantis. I will vote for either or whatever leading candidate is not a dedicated leftist Democrat (going forward, that is functionally all Democrats now). While this is an easy choice for me, it’s a major sticking point for many hard core ‘Trumpers’. There are a lot of reasons Trump deserves to be President but also a lot of liabilities, the biggest of which is that by the time it really matters, he may be absolutely unelectable for a variety of reasons – none of them having to do with anything foisted against him by the Democrats. The biggest danger for Republicans is the core of Trumpers that will vote for Trump and only Trump. Presently, that group is the biggest threat that would hand over a far-left Democrat win.
- The Democrats are mindless and will ultimately vote for whomever they’re told to vote for.
- Independents will decide the 2024 election. [that’s me btw] As per Gallup, Independents are 44% of the electorate, far exceeding the rolls of both Democrats and Republicans. Trump’s core backers and core haters are already set in stone. If he isn’t reaching Independents, he isn’t reaching anyone.
- Trump will one day die and before that, be incapable of serving as President. (“hrummpph” Trumpers). If they can’t figure that out now, they have no hope. That window of time is very small. Someone must think about the day after.
- Republican leadership is crippled. There is no level of involvement by the electorate that can fix that. DeSantis may eventually succeed but not until the Trump issue is settled.
- The big money bags will probably settle the Trump issue well before the election but that is not guaranteed.
- Trump has floated a third-party option. If he tries that, he will become a Ross Perot, at best.
- If Trump is to be defeated, it will be Trump that does the dirty deed.
- DeSantis is not establishment, no matter how hard some try to construe him as one. Is he boring? Maybe a little, but he has real chops running a state ($) and being a force in the culture wars. Independents will vote for boring.
- DeSantis sits back and quietly waits. That isn’t a bad position to be in at this point.
- Trump’s achilleas, other than big money, is his ongoing inability to find, build, and keep a loyal dedicated team. This applies to his candidacy as well.