Apparently, war is hot right now, or another way to put it, ‘get it while its hot’, because that seems to be the only thing within reach of the last gasp of the Biden regime. Given Biden’s Ukraine provocation, we’ll be lucky if we’re not in WW III before January 21. Nevertheless, Trump consistently declared that as in his first administration, he would avoid wars and barter for peace through strength. I believe him because he did it before, but all bets are off if he’s forced to do an intervention in an expanded war poked by Biden. I can’t help but wonder how that will play with his party and his people if it parses out like that, but we can only wait to see at this point.
Meanwhile, I wonder how Trump will tamp down the bad guys, particularly Xi and Putin. Given Trumps proclamations about shaping our nation’s international fortunes through liberal use of tariffs and other clues, I have some ideas. What follows is simply my brainstorm roughly following Trumps priorities. I hasten to add, I have zero expertise here, so I don’t pretend it’s anything other than speculation. The only caveat is that I’m of an age that I remember some history firsthand and have read up on prior ages at a certain season of my life so that alone adds a small qualification that few laymen can claim given that history knowledge is virtually verboten in today’s education system.
The following are all non-military economic measures that would force a dictator or any country to adjust their martial impulses. Some would be seen as an act of war just as serious as dropping literal bombs but so be it. Much of this goes beyond the tired old ubiquitous ‘sanctions’ which are like the scene in the movie ‘Space Balls’ where the various spaceship speeds are preceded by goofy adjectives such as ‘ludicrous’ speed. It’s all the same to us and if you really meant it the first time, why did you hold something back in reserve?
Domestic Policy: If you mean to hurt another country economically, it follows that there will be equal or greater retaliation that will hurt your own economic interest. Short term, we will all pay, for sure, but the damage can be limited by being first, by being stealthy, and by maneuvering your friends and allies into the right market position along with you to take up the slack. If we’re going to stick it to Xi by wiping out one of his market sectors; pick any, say, ship loads of grain; if we’re the initiator, we can begin reorganizing the global chess board a year or two in advance. We can send our shipments to newer markets, even if at a discount and we can source incoming staples from elsewhere. In critical components like computer chips, we’re already far behind but we’ve been on notice for a few years now and we’ve not yet begun to truly fight back here. That can change under Trump, perhaps with a national emergency declaration. Something tells me that Elon Musk could pull this off. Of course, this whole domestic preparation will not go at all unnoticed and even just this will be interpreted as an act of war because it would immediately start squeezing China. With Russia, we’d have to play hard ball with some of our own allies in Europe especially.
This signals one other aspect; it all starts at home and then there are allies. Our true friends work cooperatively with us right out of the gate. Our lukewarm friends balk a little and only act begrudgingly. We give them second priority in everything. Some ‘friends’ think they can buck our non-military economic war because it suits their interests. If they go their own way, we leave them to hang out to dry when the retaliation really kicks in.
Monetary policy: China clearly wants the yen to equal or exceed the dollar in global clout. If we start a long-term process of divestment indexed to progressive steps in Chinese aggression, we can do a great deal of economic damage to their already fragile economy. We stop buying their stuff to limit their access to dollars. We dump large quantities of yen on whomever will take them every time they run their mouth or make a move on their neighbors. Once the yen takes a hit, that trend starts to take on a life of its own. As previously mentioned, our favored allies do likewise. Combined with tariffs, payable only in dollars, we starve them of the best fiat currency on the globe. Sooner rather than later, this sets off their internal economic spiral and increases their well-deserved domestic unrest. At that point, we’re doing to them as they have done unto us. Our war is ‘on’, not a shot fired, not a troop committed. A great deal can be accomplished until Xi is dumped and their territorial aspirations ares dropped.
Tariffs: Tariffs are an old-fashioned tool of trade and monetary equality. The United States was built on tariffs. Globalism changed all of that. In naïve principle, it sounded like economic mutual benefit, but the reality was that it drained our economy and replaced it with lining the pockets of other economies, governments, and criminals around the globe, all at our expense. Tariffs are us returning to our roots. Every trading partner would get taxed with tariffs at least a little. Our lukewarm partners get taxed more, our enemies get soaked. Economies almost entirely dependent on US trade comply and live or if they try to retaliate, they destroy themselves, quickly. Countries that initiate hostilities against their neighbors get an instant 100% tariff. Tariffs modify behavior.
Screaming critics like to point out that tariffs make everything more expensive for us. That is partially true, but add to that, ‘unless you buy American’. That will likely still be more expensive but leads to several other considerations: Just how many trinkets and how much cheap foreign and disposable stuffs do we really need? What would happen to your spending wallet over time if your income tax bill was cut in half? What are the positive consequences of 99+% employment along with plunging government spending, increased domestic money supply, cash surpluses, mortgages and car loans perhaps plunging to 1-2%? Last but not least, how much is it worth to you that your son, brother, or father doesn’t have to go fight in a foreign war that we have virtually no national interest in?
Embargos: Embargoes don’t just tax trade, it cuts them off altogether. It’s a drastic means that the initiating country must be equally prepared for. It might be the only effective means against a country like Russia that is not a major trading partner. Where it gets even more effective is when they are expanded to vulnerable 3rd party nations allied with an aggressor like Russia. Suddenly, Russia would have to redirect resources to take up the slack with their wayward allies. Like tariffs, embargoes also modify behavior, but it matters who imposes them first and under what conditions. This is where leadership becomes critical.
Military Bluff: While I said this was all about economic verses military force, this is still the case here. Reagan won the cold war by forcing the USSR to over-prepare for nuclear war until they were economically and socially exhausted; then USSR crumbled from within. Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are every bit still as vulnerable as the former USSR. They all have severe not so hidden fragile economies, unruly dissidents, aggrieved minorities, and dissatisfied young people. We threaten every one of them to their knees, forcing them to invest huge amounts of money and human resources to counter our phantom threats. The goal is not simply to bankrupt them, it is also to build whatever internal disruption is necessary to bring about regime change.
While my explanation for these measures is surely and absolutely simplistic, they all represent real world tactics that have worked exceedingly well in the past. The only reason they’re not being used as much now is because it takes strong principled leadership to guide an American nation through and past the inevitable shorter-term hardships that these measures would entail. It takes a smart envisioned nation that will not whine and cry that they can’t get $99 TVs at Christmas this year at Walmart. I think there’s a chance that we may be close to that kind of necessary resolve.
If you’d like to comment on this post, feel free to do so on Twitter. Follow me: @leestanNEreader