A couple weeks ago, I started a write up about Ron DeSantis, questioning why he had become so invisible in the 2024 campaign. I have since erased it and started over; here is what I think is the answer.
First, my own backdrop: I have endorsed both DeSantis and Trump and gave an edge to DeSantis at times. I think he will make a great President someday, but times and circumstances have not been kind to him this round. I think he has the talent, track record, and stamina to win a race, just not this one. I think DeSantis has some crucial advantages in how he would govern that Trump doesn’t have and yet I believe Trump can and will execute a transformative term in office even if, again, pock-marked by enemy bombardment.
I’ve been disappointed to see the DeSantis campaign in disarray and it concerns me, because running a good campaign is part of being a good President. I believe there is one single factor that he’s has been unable to overcome: by default, he inherited the faux loyalty of every Never-Trumper in the entire Republican party (and beyond). Of course, many of them have their actual names and dollars behind other never-going-to-win has-beens like Pence, Christy, and Haley, but consider that symbolic and an investment in messaging and future power plays. Those supporters know who the one true alternative is for the actual Republican party candidate, DeSantis.
There are really only two sides to the Republican party now, Establishment and America-First. All the credible evidence I’ve seen suggests DeSantis is America-First but there is no oxygen left in that room due to Trump and his never-anyone-elsers. DeSantis now finds himself tarred and feathered with every stripe of Never-Trumper out there whether he likes or agrees with them at all. One could argue that he could or should rise above that, but the fact is, he hasn’t. But this is not so much about the candidates as it is about the electorate. The depths of hatred – I don’t think this is too strong of a word – toward the Establishment wing of the party and what it represents; it has no bounds; it is deep and unstoppable. Trump of course has his own Establishment problem because that’s three quarters of who he appointed to run his last government and they crashed his term. Et tu Brute? He isn’t being exactly straight forward about that now either. Be assured, those people will still be there when Trump wins his next term. Conservative America has already forgotten that history and will miss it under their nose when it happens again. Meanwhile, DeSantis has those people dotted throughout his campaign in plain view.
The only chance that DeSantis had, was to out Trump Trump but that point is past, and that hill is taken. Again, this is based on what the Conservative electorate sees and wants today. What they want in 2028 will be entirely different.
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