What better way to ease back in from a blog absence than to talk about beer. I’m going to throw something against the wall and see if it sticks:
We’re in peak craft beer. What does that mean? The proliferation of craft beer makers and distributors has reached a point where they will not continue meteoric growth. Aside from a few areas not entirely saturated, the craft beer movement will subside. While this has been my gut feeling the past year, there are some reasons for why this trend will go this direction.
- The economy has peaked and we’re seeing signs that it will now contract. In 2019, it will be harder to start a business than in 2018. Financiers will be more cautious, waiting to see if their local market can really sustain yet another craft brewery.
- The craft beer movement is not new. The true believers are already in the fold and there are not too many potential new patrons pre-disposed to craft beer tastes, still hiding under rocks. The march of new converts will slow considerable and they already have a lot more places to go than they did a couple years ago.
- Craft beer consumers are becoming more sophisticated. I’ve pointed out before, the tendency of some to throw themselves into anything called craft beer regardless of the quality. Believe me, there are a lot of craft brewers doing a lot of shoddy work because of an undiscerning patron base will reward them with patronage, no matter what, but this will not last forever. The customer will wise up, choose the ones that brew better and strand the ones that are coasting on hype.
- Dirty little secret here: some craft brewers are pulling some of the same tricks as the big boys – additives. It’s no longer the pure quaint story about the field boy, unadulterated ingredients, and nature’s bounty; it’s about freeing up tanks and floor space, capital and bankers, scaling up, breakneck growth. Craft beer is in danger of simply turning into Mini-Me. While the result may be initially undetectable to many, it does taint the all-important ‘narrative’ which is one big reason why craft beer became the refuge from big-beer to start with. Word will get out.
- If craft beer really has nothing on big beer and the sell-out Judas, mid-size brewers that they’ve been buying out, why should we be prejudiced against the mid-sized and large brewers? Their distributors will clean up pretty well. They are not immune to learning and marketing what the new and reformed beer consumer wants. Sure, the In-Bevs of the world are still pretty arrogant, but there are less people that care.
- Millennials kill a lot of things and craft beer will not go unscathed by this generation of dubious loyalty.
- Truly local may do well as long as they cultivate a unique and personal relationship with a small clientele – their friends and groupies basically. But this will not translate much to craft sector growth.
- Last but not least, home brewing is still growing and making most of the truly best beer. Whole grain home brew has its own significant ceiling of entry due to equipment cost, time scheduling, and cookery fear, but those already in will stay in and the numbers will inch up. This is where all those new craft brewers have been coming from anyway, but more of them will just stick to their own craft.
Lee Jones