The present stasis in the Iran War is this: They were heavily bombed and were on life support so to speak except that they continue to dump all their limited resources into drones, missiles, and resuming their nuclear program. They’re still shooting at ships in the Strait of Hormuz and at neighboring oil states in spite of several waves of our bombings. There are real limitations on what can be done soley with an air war. The Iranian civilian government has no power and the IRGC now exercises full control of governing by coercing the formal branches of their government. Presently, we appear to be in a place where we can neither fully win nor lose. We can keep the Strait open but not entirely safe. We can prevent a full-scale resumption of the nuclear program but cannot make it disappear altogether. Trump does not want to take out major civilian infrastructure which is understandable but even if he did, the IRGC would still fight to the death, still shoot at ships and allies. It’s now a race against time inasmuch as 1, we seem to be low on advanced weapons and 2, China is starting to send in more advanced weaponry to Iran. The ongoing realities now stretching weeks and months are at variance with Trump’s rhetoric, that an ever-greater bombing will occur, that the Strait is fully open, that Iran is fully [functionally] defeated. It was easy to take out 90% of their capabilities, it’s next to impossible to take out the last 10%. I am of the faction that still believes that Iran, particularly the IRGC must be militarily decimated out of existence and that they are terminally incapable of abiding by a negotiated settlement.
I’ll be audacious and blunt about what I think Trump should do at this point.
- Change up the rhetoric. When you say you’re going to bomb them like they’ve never seen before and you say it on a dozen occasions without ever delivering whether for good tactical reasons or because you were foiled, you look no better than the eternally mouthy boastful martyrs of Iran. Say far less and just do.
- Form the war into a Middle East security alliance and start making the oil states hoist their own flag and claim their own victories, after all, they are the biggest stake holders. They’re already doing so covertly, take it public. Make the Saudis, the UAE, and Bahrain for example, put up standing armies.
- Stop the public antics with and from the Israelis and tell them to keep on or get back to the things they do best like covert wars, (see below).
- Switch to the Ukrainian method. We’ve gone as far as we can with the big bombs for now. Send in a million little drones, bleed them with a million cuts.
- Start taking out the head honchos of the IRGC. We did a pretty good job in the initial round of taking out their heads of the theocratic state. Why change that MO with the IRGC? If you’re going to publicize anything, put up a hit list and start filling it with Xs
- Switch to a covert war. This should already be in progress, but is it? Progress as of the end of July suggests that it is not. We cannot have boots on the ground. Correction; we cannot have known boots on the ground.
- Can’t reach the depths of Pickax Mountain from the air? Maybe we could make it un-useful in other ways. Perhaps a robot could dump a few kilos of a just right ultra-fine isotope into the air intake. Who really needs bombs anymore?
- Arm the Iranian people. [As suggested before], if the second amendment is good enough for us, it’s good enough for the innocent people of Iran. I understand that this has been tried before with failed consequences in other conflicts. Do it again, do it better, do it more granular, do it right. Its worth noting that the Israelis could better pull this off but they have a little problem in that they cannot and won’t do it with their own nation. Maybe worth discussing.
- Let the people liberate their own country one city, state, and region at a time. I think we can keep the IRGC tied up long enough to make that viable. Start from the edges and work inward. If we’re going to be sponsoring a war of moderate length anyway, invest in the ultimate stakeholders. Don’t let them just be victims. They’ve already shown remarkable courage; give them real tools.
- Realign all of our alliances and priorities in that hemisphere. Who needs NATO if they won’t really help? If the Israelis, Saudis, Ukrainians, any that are really going to help you get real work done, if they perform, elevate them, make new and better treaties.
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A helpful introduction to the author in my ABOUT