I see a trend in Covid cases that will challenge what you’re seeing in the media right now (todays date 12/18/20). We’re in a spike which really isn’t a spike, but rather, a sustained and still growing wave. Over the past ten days, we’ve averaged over a quarter million confirmed cased per day in the US. I calculate that the day over day growth in cases for the last 10 days is 101.42%*. Hospitals are full, yet the death rate is slowing decreasing, now to 1.79% of confirmed cases to date. If you go to a Walmart, you’d never know this is the case. Christmas will go on. That’s because most cases really are mild or at least not debilitating. Six months ago, it was unusual to know someone who got it. Now it’s virtually impossible to not know many people that got Covid and at least know of someone that died. While our governors have tried everything possible to squelch normal life, ostensibly to control the spread of Covid, the exact opposite has happened. It’s out of their control and Covid is firmly in control of itself as of today. Here’s where it’s going.
The following does not take into account the now released vaccine. I don’t expect to see the numbers respond to a vaccine for another three to six weeks. What we actually see, I believe, will have more to do with the natural course of the Covid and not the vaccine. How do I know this? I’m just reading the numbers, nothing more, nothing less. Set up your own spreadsheets, plug in the publicly available data, you’ll get the same results.
The population of the United States is 328,000,000 people. The number of tests administered so far is about equal to 60% of the United States. That of course can be assumed to include a lot of secondary tests on stricken individuals. The number of confirmed cases now stands at 17,442,180. We’re adding another quarter million cases per day. The average day over day rate of increase (averaged over the last 10 days) is as I said, 101.42% and that average is still increasing daily, (even after about one week of vaccine administering). Where will this take us?
Our scientist tell us ‘herd immunity’ occurs at 70% infection. We’re already a lot closer to that then we think. If the present trend continues in a straight line (it won’t), but if it did, one half of the country would have been infected by May 26th, 2021. Seventy percent (70%) will have been infected by June 19, 2021. One hundred percent (100%) will have been infected by July 14, 2021. The rate of increase is still increasing daily so these dates would be moved up earlier, each day, starting after reading data available 12/19/20.
If the pandemic continued at its same pace as today and if herd immunity is real, the pandemic will be over before summer. This is without a vaccine. To borrow a phrase, “wait, there’s more!” It is estimated by some researches, that for every confirmed case to date, that there really has been ten more. If that were true, that would mean we’ve really had 174,421,800 cases, well over half the country. At the current rate of increased cases, that would mean we’d be within two to four weeks of a dramatic plunge in daily cases, if the X10 rule were correct and if herd immunity is a reality at 70%. This would kick in at about the same time that a vaccine starts to affect outcomes.
As I said, the data will not continue climbing at its present rate so my dates – extended further out, are theoretical only. In any scenario, the climb would slow, level off and start to fall. But as close as we are to widespread immunities, along with a vaccine, that level off and plunge should still occur well before my dates, if only because of the vaccine. I would expect this to start by late January at the latest.
What are the wild cards?: Herd immunity does not really occur in any meaningful time? Reinfections become a significant factor? The vaccine is really a total dud and we’ve all been duped? I’m not so much of a conspiracy theorist to believe this but it has to be said.
The next set of questions are really more intriguing. No one doubts at all, that governors and legislators have delighted in this pandemic and their emergency powers. Fauci, et al, have predicted long timelines to normalcy, particularly Fall 2021. What happens if this cause for great state emergency powers is annihilated by say, March, April, May? Stay tuned for more.
Data* My data is derived from the tracking site maintained by Johns Hopkins University.